Life expectancy keeps rising

Research by Kontis et al published in the Lancet predicts that life expectancy in rich countries will continue rising.

According to their forecasting models life expectancy is projected to increase in 35 industrialized countries.  There is a 90% probability that life expectancy at birth among South Korean women in 2030 will be higher than 87 years, and a 57% probability that it will be higher than 90 years. The projected life expectancy of French, Spanish and Japanese women are close to the South Korean women.

There is a greater than 95% probability that life expectancy at birth among men in Hungary, South Korea, Australia, and Switzerland will surpass 80 years in 2030, and a greater than 27% probability that it will surpass 85 years.

Of the countries studied, the USA, Japan, Sweden, Greece, Macedonia, and Serbia have some of the lowest projected life expectancy gains for both men and women.

The female life expectancy advantage over men is likely to shrink by 2030 in every country except Mexico, where female life expectancy is predicted to increase more than male life expectancy, and in Chile, France, and Greece where the two sexes will see similar gains.

Americans will gain a couple of years of life expectancy between 2010 and 2030 with women living to 83 and men to 76 years.  The reasons for the US lag are not known but the use of opioids, alcoholism and obesity are among the likely causes.

Nations such as China, Russia and India were not included in their study because of lack of adequate data.

While scientists once thought that average life expectancy beyond 90 was not possible, medical advances including good nutrition and social programs make continued increases in longevity real thus careful planning for health, social services and pensions is required.

Exercise may reduce injuries from falls in older men

Gill et al in a BMJ article reported findings of potential beneficial effect(s) exercise may have in reducing falls among the elderly.   The authors derived their data from the Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders (LIFE) trial.  The research included 1635 sedentary men and women aged 70-89 years with functional limitations, as defined with a short physical performance battery score (SPPB) equal to or less than 9, but who were able to walk 400 meters. 

The SPPB consists of a battery of tests that combines results from gait speed, standing from a chair and balance as was described by Guralnik etal.  Scores range from 0 (worst performance) to 12 (best performance). Thus SPPB has been used as a predictive tool for assessing possible disability and/or for monitoring of function in older people. 

The participants in the LIFE study were randomly assigned to a structured, moderate intensity physical activity program (n=818) conducted in a center and at home that included aerobic, strength, flexibility, and balance training activities, or to a health education program (n=817) consisting of workshops on topics relevant to older people and upper extremity stretching.

The study found that the rate of falling did not differ significantly between those who received health education versus those who were asked to increase their physical activity.  Over two years, 61.2 percent reported at least one fall in the first group, while 60 percent did in the second.  Serious fall injuries, defined as a fall that resulted in a fracture and/or injury that led to a hospital admission, was experienced by 84 (10.3%) in the health education group and 75 (9.2%) of the participants in the physical activity group.

The investigators found the male participants in the exercise group boosted their physical activity, and also had greater improvements in gait, balance and muscle strength comparing to those in the health education group.  This resulted in a 38 percent lower risk of serious fall injuries, a 53 percent lower risk of fall-related fractures, and a 59 percent lower rate of fall injuries requiring hospitalization for the men in the workout group. However, the exercise program did not appear to reduce women’s risk of serious injuries.

Approximately 30 per cent of the elderly fall each year.  In 2010, 2.3 million non-fatal fall injuries were treated in U.S. emergency departments, and more than 662,000 of these patients were admitted to the hospital.  The results of this study are suggestive that even modest interventions in physical activity as those practiced by the participants in this study may result in a reduction in the number of falls and in the associated morbidity and mortality from the resulting injuries.  The sense of security due to enhanced sense of balance may also result in better-quality of life among the elderly.