Life expectancy keeps rising

Research by Kontis et al published in the Lancet predicts that life expectancy in rich countries will continue rising.

According to their forecasting models life expectancy is projected to increase in 35 industrialized countries.  There is a 90% probability that life expectancy at birth among South Korean women in 2030 will be higher than 87 years, and a 57% probability that it will be higher than 90 years. The projected life expectancy of French, Spanish and Japanese women are close to the South Korean women.

There is a greater than 95% probability that life expectancy at birth among men in Hungary, South Korea, Australia, and Switzerland will surpass 80 years in 2030, and a greater than 27% probability that it will surpass 85 years.

Of the countries studied, the USA, Japan, Sweden, Greece, Macedonia, and Serbia have some of the lowest projected life expectancy gains for both men and women.

The female life expectancy advantage over men is likely to shrink by 2030 in every country except Mexico, where female life expectancy is predicted to increase more than male life expectancy, and in Chile, France, and Greece where the two sexes will see similar gains.

Americans will gain a couple of years of life expectancy between 2010 and 2030 with women living to 83 and men to 76 years.  The reasons for the US lag are not known but the use of opioids, alcoholism and obesity are among the likely causes.

Nations such as China, Russia and India were not included in their study because of lack of adequate data.

While scientists once thought that average life expectancy beyond 90 was not possible, medical advances including good nutrition and social programs make continued increases in longevity real thus careful planning for health, social services and pensions is required.